About the IMPACT2C web-atlas
This is a preliminary page:
1. Why an IMPACT2C web-atlas?
Understanding a climate change of 2° C, and the corresponding impacts, risks and adaptation in Europe, as well as key vulnerable hot spot regions is the mission of the EU FP7 project IMPACT2C. It is an EU FP7 project quantifying projected impacts under 2°C warming which started in October 2011.
The IMPACT2C community decided to present the project results in a common publication in the form of an atlas. As the 15 IMPACT2C workpackages refer to each other and are logically connected, a printout version alone of the atlas might be in danger of underrepresenting the internal networking of all results. Therefore, the projects additionally aim to establish a web-based version, which allows for direct links to related and following topics.
The aim of the atlas
is to show climate and environmental change under a 2° C mean global temperature rise. This will include climate change impacts and vulnerabilities maps - on a pan-European level and specific topics for hot spot regions as Bangladesh, Maldives, West-Africa.
Bringing the content of the particular scientific areas into a common context and framework is the atlas’s mission. We want the results to help serve Climate Risk management for Europe. IMPACT2C comprises a model chain from climate models, impact models and assessment models. Using the climate scenarios following the RCP-scenarios, the project uses harmonized socio-economic assumptions to ensure that the sector assessments are aligned to the 2°C scenario for the impacts and adaptation analyses.
2. Atlas Concepts
2.1 The 2C Period Concept
To examine the impact of 2C global warming, a model chain of Regional Climate Models (RCMs), impact models and assessment models is applied in IMPACT2C. In principle, a model chain uses a greenhouse gas emission scenario to set up a Global Climate Model (GCM). The output of the GCM is used as driving data for a Regional Climate Model (RCM). Then the output of the RCM is used input data for the Impact and Assessment models, see figure 1.
Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5, which is a stabilization scenario as used for the IPCC5. To characterize the full spread of possible climate conditions under 2C global warming, an ensemble of five selected GCM-RCM combinations is used. For IMPACT2C climate data ensemble, 30-year time periods are used, during which the global driving models are reaching the 2C target compared to pre-industrial times, as shown in figure 2. Crossing the threshold indicates the 2C central year within this 30-year time period. Independently of the specific years, the simulations reveal the climatic conditions under a global warming of 2C. Additionally, in IMPACT2C a bias correction method was developed and applied on these climate data (LLL_UNI-GRAZ).
Figure 2: Evolution of global temperature. Observed historical (black line)
Although the IMPACT2C 2C periods vary in time, it was important to assume a common time period in order to apply socio-economic assumptions. For this purpose, a predefined average time period from 2035 to 2064 was used for the sectoral and cross-sectoral analysis is possible. This is explicitly explained in the first IMPACT2C Policy Update on 2C warming (LLL_Watkiss et al. 2013). The data ensemble for each topic consists of at least of the five RCM-GCM combinations as driving input for the impacts models. For some topics using more than one impact model, the ensemble increased up to e.g. 25 members, which is the case for the topics using five hydrological impact models.
Exceptions for this data ensemble approach appear in the stories of ”Coastal Issues”, ”Health”, and ”the Non-European Hot Spots”. For health, the data generation for atmospheric pollution and gases is based on special driven trajectory models, whereby for coastal issues driving data of dedicated ocean models where used. In the case for the non-European hot spots, the data generation varies due to the model availability on the selected regions (West Africa, East Africa, Bangladesh,and the Maldives). Some working groups additionally analyzed a 3C period. Those cases are using climate data under the RCP8.5 conditions. Here, the same concept as for the 2C period is used, besides that the GCMs cross the 3C threshold.
| RCM | Global Climate Models | 2°C periods |
|
CSC-REMO |
MPI-ESM-LR-r1 |
2050-2079 |
|
IPSL-INERIS-WRF331F |
IPSL-CM5A-MR-r1 |
2028-2057 |
|
SMHI-RCA4 |
HadGEM2-ES-r1 |
2023-2052 |
|
KNMI-RACMO22E |
EC-EARTH-r |
2042-2071 |
|
SMHI-RCA4 |
EC-EARTH-r12 |
2042-2071 |
2.2 Storylines Concept
The presentation of interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary approach of the project is challenging. Taking this into account, a link concept was developed to reveal the connections of the individual aspects within and across different sectors. Major sectors as e.g. energy and water supply are presented as a ”story”. Within the recent status of the IMPACT2C Atlas we selected nine stories:
- 1. Climate
- 2. Energy Sector
- 3. Health
- 4. Agriculture, Forestry and Ecosystems
- 5. Water Supply
- 6. Tourism
- 7. Coastal Issues
- 8. Hotspots of Exposure
- 9. Non European Hotspots
Within a story we clustered topics, such as snow season length, winter tourism demand, overnight stays at risk etc.. Topics can be relevant for different stories, and are frequently linked to other topics (see figure 3).
2.2.1 Overview of story
In the web atlas, each story is introduced by an overview page. Here, all topics of the story are brought into a context and the overall key messages are summarized by answering two questions:
- 1. Why is it important to consider climate change impact for the each sector?
- 2. What are the key findings?
In order to see the story and connected topics, the story-topic tree is shown as well as the methodological pathway, mentioning the impact and assessment models utilized within this topic, exemplary shown for the energy sector in figure 4.
Figure 4: Overview page for the energy sector story.
2.3 Similarity Concept
2.3.1 Mandatory Maps
For fulfilling the goal of clear, short messages and a walk-through structure we kept a common analysis concept for most topics. If applicable, all topics were obliged to show the 30-year ensemble mean for the 1971-2000 period and the 2C period, whereby the 1971-2000 period is used as reference period representing the current status. The climate change signal for the 2C period was established, by calculating the difference between the 2C period and the 1971-2000 period. When the data allowed, the ensemble bandwidth is represented by showing the 20th, 50th and 80th percentiles. Finally, the ensemble agreement for the climate change signal is shown, which represents the amount of models agreeing to an increasing climate change signal. Shown in the atlas are the values over 30-year temporal means of five ensemble members. We decided to show maps and content of IMPACT2C results simultaneously, whereby the analysis and texts were following simple, comparable structures. Within the map window on left side, each topic can be viewed for 1971-2000, 2C period and as the climate change signal for 2C period. If available, the percentiles maps can be viewed by activating the percentile button, opening a second window showing the additional maps. The same procedure is available if seasonal data are uploaded.
2.3.2 Recognizable scalebars
Each variable is shown as a 30 year mean for the reference period 1971-2000 and for the 2C Period. The scalebar is individual for each topic, but the same within one topic for 1971-2000, 2C period means and percentiles. Climate change signals: The scalebar colors of the climate change signal are the same for all topics. Purple indicates DECREASE, while orange indicates INCREASE.
Ensemble agreement: The scalebar for the ensemble agreement is displayed in percent, as the number of models is not the same for each variable.
(Scalebar fehlt!)
2.3.3 Recognizable text structure
Similarities in text structure in all topics helps the user to focus on the content. The reader does not need to comprehend a new text structure for each topic. The structure of the explaining texts for each topic is the same across topics. All have key messages on the top, followed by three guiding questions:
- 1. Why is the content of this map important?
- 2. Which sectors are affected by this result?
- 3. What is shown on the maps?
Within the section for additional information, other explaining elements such as graphs and tables might be included.
2.5 technical concept
For the web-atlas, a unique technical concept was created, combining different open source programs. The goal was to enable the community to manage and show their results in a common design. The contents of the web-atlas to date were prepared by the providers. The IMPACT2C web-atlas serves two tasks: First, it allows for information providers to have a provider-friendly collection, linkage, visualization and review of their scientific content. Secondly, the users receive a user-friendly tool for understanding impacts, risk and adaption under a 2C warmer climate. Due to the inter-nationality of the IMPACT2C project, the provider side needed a tool which enables the provision of map input and text editing from any location. This was enabled by an automatic data-import into a data archive system for the IMPACT2C partners. In an intermediate step, a Web Map Service handles the map contents and allows for additional features which are based on geo-referenced applications. Finally, a content management system brings texts, maps and graphs into a user-friendly format. For the users, the web-atlas is accessible for different individual devices such as smart-phones, tablets and desktops. Interactivity is granted by surfing between the different contents of maps. Additionally, several features for orientation on maps are included, as mentioned in the following sections.
2.6 atlas features
Several tools are established in the web based version:
- tutorial (online tutorial how to use the atlas)
- tooltips (graphical user interface element, with explaining elements, appears while user hover the pointer)
- different backgrounds (Shaded relief, Bluemarble, OpenStreetMap for orientation, with opacity shade out atlas map information.)
- corresponding zooming (Zoom remembers last view, while switching between topics)
- activate different boarderlines (national states (NUTS 0), basic regions (NUTS 2), small regions (NUTS 3) )
Filippo Giorgi, Piero Lionello, Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region, Global and Planetary Change, Volume 63, Issues 2–3, September 2008, Pages 90-104, ISSN 0921-8181, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.09.005. (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818107001750)