Overnight Stays at Risk May to October

Why is the content of this map important?

Value at Risk is used as a measurement of the risk of loss on a specific economic sector. Here, Value at Risk represents the climate change-induced loss to overnight stays of the entire summer tourism season (May to October), which won’t be exceeded with a probability of 95%.

Which sectors are affected by this result?

The results indicate the Value at Risk for May to October in which the majority of summer tourism activities take place in Europe, affecting the tourism sector. The respective results on June to August that make up the core summer tourism season for Europe should also be considered. Overnight Stays at Risk June to August

What is shown on the maps?

The Value at Risk in the May to October summer tourism period is expected to mainly decrease or not change significantly for the vast majority of European countries. Exceptions are Portugal, Greece and Cyprus where increase in Value at risk is expected. The increase in the particular countries Value at Risk was estimated for both warming levels of 2°C and 3°C, with the latter to be more pronounced.

Details and further information:

The Value at Risk is used to estimate the potential weather induced loss to the overnight stays. Value at risk represents the climate change induced loss to the overnight stays, which won’t be exceeded with a probability of 95%. For example, a VaR value of 2% tells us that we are 95% certain that the weather related loss to overnight stays will not exceed 2%. The VaR estimation is based on climate variables (used in TCI estimation) and historical overnight stays data.

Additional information: