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Opacity

Crop Yields - Rainfed

Key messages:

  • +2°C is equivalent to an overall loss in crop calorie yield by ~1.6%
  • Impacts vary by crops, e.g. summer crops respond differently from winter cereals
  • Robustly negative impact is expected in western and southern Europe

Why is the content of this map important?

Rainfed crop production systems are expected to be sensitive to changing climate due to impacts of temperature and precipitation on crop growth and phenology, as well as increasing weather extremities. Biophysical impacts of +2°C on major European crops in rainfed systems are simulated here, assuming present-day crop management.

Which sectors are affected by this result?

Demand for crop production is increasing due to population growth, increasing bioenergy production and changes in diet preferences. The crop production sector has a strong influence on food production and security, livestock production systems and bioenergy sector. Agricultural activities contribute to GHG emissions and thus indirectly impact multiple sectors worldwide.

What is shown on the maps?

The maps demonstrate the calorie yield (in 106 kcal ha-1) aggregated from main crops (wheat, maize, rye, barley, rice, sunflower, soya, and rape) for the reference and the +2°C warming periods, and the mean impact. Simulated rainfed yields are converted to calories and summed up to the total calorie yield. The calorie maps accumulate biophysical impacts that may significantly vary by crops and regions. Importantly, winter crops are negatively affected in many regions of western Europe due to accelerated phenological development and in South Europe due to drought. Meanwhile summer crops benefit from warming in most of Europe except for the Mediterranean.

Details and further information:

Additional information:

Author:

Juraj Balkovic

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria