Why is the content of this map important?
A +2° warming has important consequences in this region, in particular in semi-arid areas, because temperature controls evaporation, and therefore soil water budget. As the increase in precipitation is not expected to be large in East Africa, there is a risk of water shortage.
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Which sectors are affected by this result?
A temperature increase impacts many sectors as hydrology, agriculture or energy. Warmer temperatures have also a negative impact on health.
What is shown on the maps?
The map of the +2°C scenario shows a warming between 1°C and 2°C, with more than 2°C along the Red Sea. The map of the +3°C shows an acceleration of the warming, with more than 3°C over large parts of the domain. The models are fully consistent about the sign and rather consistent about the amplitude of the temperature change.
Details and further information:
The table below shows the average temperature (°C, land only) during the annual cycle.
month | J | F | M | A | M | J | J | A | S | O | N | D |
1971-2000 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 22 | 20 | 20 |
+2°C | 21 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 22 | 21 |
Michel Déqué
Meteo France (MeteoF), France