Why is the content of this map important?
The tourism sector plays an important role in many economies all over the world. Tourism is one of the most weather-sensitive sectors. The maps allow a comparison of the impacts of +2°C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe.
Which sectors are affected by this result?
Tourism covers several industries, mainly accommodation and food services, transportation, entertainment and recreation, and retail trade.
What is shown on the maps?
The maps show the accumulated weather-induced risk of losses in winter overnight stays (Weather-Value at Risk 95%) in Europe’s ski tourism related regions. This is shown for both the current period and the +2°C period (2036-2065, RCP4.5). The special map shows the difference in Weather-Value at Risk (95%) between +2°C and +3°C warming.
Details and further information:
Weather-VaR (95 %) represents the weather-induced loss which will not be exceeded with a probability of 95 % within the considered time horizon, i.e. the weather-induced loss that has to be expected once in 20 winter seasons.
The results for the current period are based on current overnight stays (avg. 2005-2010) and the climate of the reference period 1971-2000. For the +2 °C period (2036-2065) the mean over five RCP4.5 simulations is used and socioeconomic changes are considered (avg. SSP1 to SSP3). The results in the special map are based on four RCP8.5 simulations and the socioeconomic scenario SSP3.
Andrea Damm
Joanneum Research Forschungsgesellschaft mbH (JR), Austria