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Opacity

Overnight Stays at Risk June to August

Key messages:

  • Summer tourism Value at Risk is expected to increase in southern Europe
  • In northern Europe the Value at Risk is expected to decrease
  • Changes in 3°C warming are more pronounced than at 2°C

Why is the content of this map important?

Value at Risk is used as a measurement of the risk of loss on a specific economic sector. Here, Value at Risk represents the climate change-induced loss to the summer tourism overnight stays during June to August, which won’t be exceeded with a probability of 95%.

Which sectors are affected by this result?

The presented results indicate the Value at Risk for June to August: the center of summer tourism in Europe, affecting directly the tourism sector. Readers should also consider the respective results on May to October that cover the entire summer tourism season for Europe. Overnight Stays at Risk May to October

What is shown on the maps?

The Value at Risk in summer tourism is expected to increase in Mediterranean countries under 2°C of global warming, especially in Italy, Spain and Portugal. Minor changes are projected for Central European countries while northern Europe is expected to experience a decrease in the Value at Risk. The changes were estimated to be even more pronounced under 3°C of warming.

Details and further information:

The Value at Risk is used to estimate the potential weather induced loss to the overnight stays. Value at risk represents the climate change induced loss to the overnight stays, which won’t be exceeded with a probability of 95%. For example, a VaR value of 2% tells us that we are 95% certain that the weather related loss to overnight stays will not exceed 2%. The VaR estimation is based on climate variables (used in TCI estimation) and historical overnight stays data.

Additional information:

Author:

Manolis Grillakis

Technical University of Crete (TUC), Greece