Why is the content of this map important?
The annual average warming is not uniform across Europe. Northern and eastern regions warm more, and at a faster rate, than the South and West. The lack of uniformity is a consistent feature in both the annual and seasonal average temperature changes as well as numerous impacts-relevant indices such as heat waves, growing season length, extreme precipitation, etc.
Which sectors are affected by this result?
Annual average changes are difficult to link to specific impacts. The seasonal change maps are informative however. The summer changes have implications for water resources, tourism and energy in the South. The outcomes in winter have implications for the energy sector and winter tourism.
What is shown on the maps?
These maps show the difference between the +2°C and +3°C periods and the 1971-2000 base period. The seasonal plots are telling and show a more complex story than the annual change alone. In summer the maximum warming occurs in the the South along the Mediterranean and over high altitudes. In winter the warming is greatest in northern areas and it largely due to substantial increase in the daily minimum temperatures. Also telling is the model agreement map: there is 100% agreement among the models that the climate over all of Europe warms. The +3°C period shows the same patterns but with even greater warming.
Details and further information:
Stefan Sobolowski
Uni Research AS (UniRes), Norway