Barley Vulnerability

Why is the content of this map important?

Barley represents just under 20% of total cereals production in the EU and is the 3^rd largest cereal crop, by total production. This map combines estimated changes in barley production with an estimate of the agricultural sector to cope with predicted changing drought conditions, and highlights areas that may be more vulnerable than others.

Which sectors are affected by this result?

Vulnerability of specific crops is most relevant for the agricultural sector, although crop production and extreme events lowering that output can have an impact on consumer prices at regional and world markets.

What is shown on the maps?

These results are a combination of estimates of the difference between current and future barley yields and the adaptive capacity (AC) of the agricultural sector to cope with increasing drought hazards, producing an index of vulnerability. Lower scores mean little to no future vulnerability, with moderate scores indicating increasing impacts with which farmers can cope. High values indicate possible areas which will be unable to cope with these future changes. The vulnerability index was limited to grid cells in which over 5% are currently used for crop production. 

The majority of areas producing barley will be faced with only small to moderate challenges in adapting to changing drought conditions, due to the combination of relatively low impacts and moderate adaptive capacity. 

Details and further information:

As mentioned, this estimate of vulnerability is the combination of biophysical impacts with adaptive capacity. Areas with low impacts and high adaptive capacity receive lower vulnerability scores, increasing as impacts increase and/or AC decreases. AC is estimated via a five capitals indicator approach, which uses three indicators of physical, social, financial, natural, and human capitals, aggregated to form a single AC index, as can be seen in the Atlas map on assessing agricultural AC. 

 

Additional information: