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Opacity

Mean Water Temperature

Key messages:

  • Water temperatures will increase almost everywhere at +2°C warming
  • Rising water temperatures combined with declines in summer river discharge in most parts of Europe will reduce potential for cooling water use and thermoelectric power production
  • All ensemble members agree in increasing water temperature

Why is the content of this map important?

Water temperature is an important indicator for cooling water problems and thermoelectric power generation, and also for freshwater ecosystem health. Increasing water temperatures combined with reduced streamflow may increase restrictions on cooling water use. This may reduce the potential for thermoelectric power production if current environmental objectives are maintained.

Which sectors are affected by this result?

Water temperatures largely impact the electricity sector (thermoelectric power) and ecosystem health.

What is shown on the maps?

European countries, with largest declines for southern and South eastern European countries (e.g. Bulgaria, Greece). The maps show the increase in mean water temperature for the +2°C period compared to 1971-2000 (control climate period) based on 5 RCM-GCM experiments for RCP4.5. Our results show a high agreement in change (almost 100%) for most parts of Europe showing robust increases in projected water temperature. The figure below shows the impacts of projected increasing water temperatures combined with changes in streamflow on usable thermoelectric capacity for countries in Europe. This is presented under both 2°C (cyan) and 3°C (salmon) global warming. Large declines in usable capacity are projected for most European countries.
thermoelectric_Isabelle_Deliv_WP6_Energy.jpg
Climate change impacts on national thermoelectric power usable capacity under under a 2°C (cyan) and 3°C (salmon) global warming

Details and further information:

Water temperature was modelled using the stream temperature model RBM (Yearsley, 2009) linked to the VIC hydrological model (Liang et al., 1994). The hydrological-water temperature modelling framework was scaled up to river basins in Europe (van Vliet et al., 2012, 2015). Projections of water temperature and streamflow were used to quantify impacts on cooling water use and usable thermoelectric power capacity using the model of  Koch and Vögele  (2009). We used data for 407 (nuclear, fossil-, biomass-fuelled) power plants in Europe. Simulated impacts were then aggregated to country level.

Additional information:

Author:

Michelle van Vliet

Wageningen Universiteit (WU), Netherlands