Why is the content of this map important?
The increase in temperature will be 1.5°C to 2°C over Ethiopia and Somalia, and 2°C to 2.5°C over Sudan. This implies a significant increase in evaporation. The fact that precipitation stays at the same level, in view with increasing evaporation, implies rising shortages in water resources.
Which sectors are affected by this result?
The water shortage will affect the agriculture and hydrology sectors.
What is shown on the maps?
Along the Somalia coast, rainfall increases by 60 mm per year, for a present amount of 400 to 800 mm per year from North to South. Over the Ethiopian plateau rainfall response is -20 mm on average, though the model responses spread from -60 to +20 mm. In West Sudan, we observe an increase of 0 to 40 mm from North to South, for a present amount of 200 to 1000 mm per year. This triple pattern of increase over Sahara and Somalia and decrease along the Nile valley is found also with the +3°C warming.
Details and further information:
This table shows that the precipitation increase concerns the autumn rains.
| J | F | M | A | M | J | J | A | S | O | N | D | |
| 1971-2000 | 30 | 32 | 53 | 81 | 77 | 66 | 85 | 98 | 85 | 76 | 60 | 38 |
| +2°C | 30 | 32 | 53 | 80 | 75 | 64 | 84 | 101 | 88 | 81 | 64 | 39 |
Michel Déqué
Meteo France (MeteoF), France