Why is the content of this map important?
Streamflow droughts are of major interest for several sectors. As researchers agree on a future climate warming potentially leading to higher evaporation, it is thus fundamental to study how this will impact streamflow droughts for adaptation planning for various sectors.
Which sectors are affected by this result?
Several sectors are affected by streamflow droughts including power generation (power plants cooling), fisheries and water suppliers.
What is shown on the maps?
Streamflow droughts deals with low flows in rivers, as opposed to meteorological and agricultural droughts. The specific kind of streamflow drought is the 1 in 100 year return one: a streamflow drought which occurs on average every 100 years. In parts of southern Europe (Greece, Spain, Portugal, part of the Balkans, France and Italy), streamflow droughts are expected to be more intense due to less rainfall and higher water evaporation. In parts of Fenno-Scandinavia and eastern Europe (Poland, Hungary), such droughts shall be less intense. This due to: first, less snowfall and more precipitation in areas with low flows in winter, and second, for areas with low flows in summer, a general increase of rainfall.
Details and further information:
These results are based on 2 hydrological models outputs and 5 high-resolution climate models. The first map for the baseline period is in m3/s (that is the unit of the numbers shown on the map), same goes for the +2C period (second map). In the third map, relative change is shown and the results are expressed in percentages (%). A positive increase means that there is more water in the river channel, so that the drought is less intense.
Philippe Roudier
Joint Research Center - European Commission (JRC), Italy